Grokking Agentic Design Patterns
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Probabilistic Defenses: What the Model Gives You and What You Add
Suppose that a detector catches 99 percent of injection attempts, and that an attacker can try as many variations as they like. Each attempt succeeds with a chance of 0.01, so the chance that at least one succeeds grows with each try.
| Attempts | Chance that all are caught | Chance that at least one succeeds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0.99 | 1 percent |
| 10 | 0.904 | About 10 percent |
| 100 | 0.366 | About 63 percent |
| 500 | 0.007 | About 99 percent |
The figures assume independent attempts, which favors the defender, because a real attacker learns from each failure
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